Thursday, 23 October 2014
How Canada should fight ISIS
1) Recognize the futility of war in a asymmetrical conflict. While there have been success stories they are few and far between and restricted to little victors over a few millions of people. I refer to Malaysia and to some extent central America. Case in point the US spent $7.6 Billion warring against drugs in Afghanistan alone since 2001. 2014 will be the best year in history for Heroin in Afghanistan. The US spent more than a decade and Trillions of dollars trying to shape Iraq and failed miserably. Why should air strikes make a difference today?
Why would sending in ground troops have a different result. We must show these people it makes more sense to co operate than conflagration. We need to be patient. The reason there are so many willing jihadists is they have no other hope. Lets give them hope, its far cheaper than giving them lead and depleted uranium. The reason fanatical groups like Nazi;s, Hamas, Hezbolla, Taliban the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS have followers is that they provide better goverment than the existing regimes. True democracy is the antidote to their power. Let they people rule, governing is hard, rebelling is easy. Over time the people will vote for best practices. Now that time could be centuries. Therefore it is not to soon to start. If we can out wait North Korea, we can out wait ISIS.
2)Recognize that ISIS is not evil. They are not some supernatural force we must be good enough to conquer. There are hundreds of horrible barbaric Medieval regimes in this world and many of them are our so called allies in the fight against ISIS. The USA gave up on trying to herd cats in the Middle East. When the US pulled out the vacuum was filled with ethnic and ideological hatred. Ask yourself why Turkey part of NATO who borders ISIS territory is not willing or at least a reluctant ally in the fight? ISIS is a pawn in a huge proxy war. The main players are the USA, Israel (Netanyahoo edition) and Saudi Arabia facing off against Syria, Iran and Russia, IMHO Saudi Arabian Wahhabism combined with huge wealth has created a monster. If we really want to defeat ISIS we must slay that dragon. The easiest way to do this is a hydrogen economy. In 2002 Rifkin estimated it would cost $200 Billion to switch the USA from greenhouse gas to water vapor. Even if the cost was two trillion would than not be a bargain? Oil has become the elemental evil that dragging civilization down. Ironically its a double front, subservience to the Medieval wishes of the Middle East and the way more deadly climate chaos.
3)Qualify the threat. The soldier run down in the parking lot was a risk people in uniform will have to accept. However the attack on the Parliament Buildings was a failure of the security apparatus. The threat level was elevated but it was a paper tiger. Yes we need more security. However even in Canada your more likely to be shot by a cop than a terrorist. So far terrorism as dangerous as lighting strikes.
4) Deal with the marginalized people in Canada. Mr. Zehaf-Bibeau was arrested for Pot at an early age making him a criminal. Was that not the pulling of the trigger that killed the soldier yesterday. Lets stop making people criminals for no reason. Lets make sure people who fall through the cracks have help. Lets make sure we have a safe place for those who are really disturbed. In Europe they accept that 20% of the population is going to be a problem. Managing that problem with best practices means the 80% can live without fear.
5) Never forget most people would never be part of a terrorist attack. That is our best weapon in this war. Never forget that most people knowing something is wrong, even with their own son or daughter are going to the authorities. This is our love. Trust ourselves.